QuantMig Migration Scenarios Explorer
The QuantMig Migration Scenarios Explorer provides projections and data on population changes by age, sex, place of birth, educational attainment, and labor force participation in 31 European countries under various migration scenarios, including high migration events. It uses a microsimulation model to analyze the impact of different socio-demographic characteristics.
The tool includes 15 scenarios, including the Baseline scenario and 14 high migration event scenarios, with assumptions and results for future population changes from 2020 to 2060. The baseline population data comes from the 2011 censuses, EU-LFS, and European Social Survey, with migration assumptions based on estimates by Aristotelous et al. (2022) and Bijak (2023).
The scenarios consider high migration events from seven world regions, including North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and various parts of Asia. For example, assuming the war in Ukraine ends by 2025, the scenarios Explorer projects that 40 per cent of migrants will return.
"Immigration Flows" visualises immigration from world regions into the EU+ countries projected in the Baseline, Short-high migration events and Persistent-high migration events scenarios. "Pyramids", "Indicators" and "Maps" visualise the results of the projected scenarios.
The QuantMig-Mic microsimulation model projects populations by 13 socio-demographic characteristics, and its code is available on Zenodo, where data for all 29 QuantMig scenarios, including those not featured in the Explorer, can be downloaded from the repository.
