Foresight: Displacement forecasts

Summary

The Foresight model predicts forced displacement 1-3 years ahead using 120+ indicators from open-source data, covering 26 countries, and is often more accurate than current humanitarian planning figures.

The model is a machine learning tool designed to predict forced displacement, including IDPs, refugees, and asylum seekers, at the national level for up to three years into the future. It uses over 120 indicators from open-source data, covering 26 countries, is often more accurate than current humanitarian planning figures, and is intended for internal strategic planning and broader humanitarian sector engagement. The model can also assess the impact of specific events or hypothetical scenarios on displacement forecasts.

An dashboard provides forecasts, scenarios and analysis based on data up to 2023, sourced from UNHCR and IDMC, and includes interactive features for exploring country-specific data. A spinning globe allows for further depth into work in specific countries and their foresight data.