Migration data in Central Asia

Key trends

War in Ukraine

On 24 February 2022, the Russian Federation invaded Ukraine. Although remittances from the Russian Federation to Central Asian countries fell in the immediate wake of the invasion and the first rounds of international sanctions, the Russian rubble did not collapse as expected (World Bank, 2022). The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) revised its earlier estimates from September 2022 since the outlook for Central Asia’s economies improved due to the return of high remittances and oil and gas revenues (EBRD, 2023). According to the EBRD’s September 2022 regional economic outlook, Central Asia was expected to grow by 4.3 per cent in 2022 and 4.8 per cent in 2023 (EBRD, 2022). Instead of falling, remittance inflows remained strong in Central Asia increasing by 69 per cent from USD 15.3 billion in 2021 to USD 25.8 billion in 2022 (World Bank - KNOMAD, December 2023). The growth registered in 2022 was also attributed to the post-pandemic increase in the demand for labour migration to the Russian Federation (Ratha et. al., 2022) and the increased use of official money transfer channels due to limited mobility (Dinarte-Diaz et. al., 2022). However, in 2023, remittances inflows to Central Asia are estimated to have decreased by 3.7 per cent to USD 24.8 billion (World Bank - KNOMAD, December 2023). Economic growth in Central Asia is forecast to remain strong at 5.2 per cent in 2023 and 5.4 per cent in 2024 (EBRD, 2023).

Immigration

As of mid-year 2020, there were an estimated 5.6 million international migrants in Central Asian countries. Of these, the majority (52%) were female migrants while 48 per cent were male migrants.  Around 3.7 million international migrants were hosted in Kazakhstan, followed by 1.2 million in Uzbekistan, 276 thousand in Tajikistan, 199 thousand in Kyrgyzstan and 195 thousand in Turkmenistan. Migrants from the top three countries of origin represented 84 per cent of all international migrants in Central Asia: Russian Federation (68% or 3.8 million), followed by Ukraine (9% or 515 thousand) and Uzbekistan (7% or 380 thousand). It is worth noting that ethnic populations with links to Central Asia also travel to and within Central Asia which are considered international migrants statistically as they are citizens of other countries. Nearly 485 thousand international migrants in Central Asian countries as of mid-year 2020 were from other Central Asian countries: basically, nine per cent of the international migrant stock in Central Asia is intraregional (UN DESA, 2020). Data might have changed since February 2022 due to the Russian war in Ukraine.

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, skilled Russian workers, especially IT specialists, moved to the Central Asia region. After the announcement of mobilization in September 2022, more Russians moved to the Central Asian countries. By the end of October 2022, Kazakhstan estimates that half a million of Russian citizens had entered the country during the year, remaining then in the country (Ministry of International Affairs of Kazakhstan, 2022). From January to September 2022, Kyrgyzstan stated that 184,000 Russians had arrived in the country (Ministry of Digital Development of Kyrgyzstan, 2022), while about 395,000 Russian citizens had arrived in Uzbekistan during the first nine months of 2022 (Statistics Agency Under the President of Uzbekistan, 2022). Neither Kyrgyzstan nor Uzbekistan specified how many of these people remained (Engvall, 2023).

Emigration

As of mid-year 2020, there were 7.8 million international migrants from Central Asian countries worldwide: 4.2 million from Kazakhstan, 2 million from Uzbekistan, 774 thousand from Kyrgyzstan, 587 thousand from Tajikistan and 243 thousand from Turkmenistan. Of the 7.8 million international migrants from Central Asian countries, 63 per cent (4.9 million) were in the Russian Federation, followed by 17 per cent (1.3 million) in Germany and 7 per cent (529 thousand) in Ukraine (UN DESA, 2020). Data might have changed since February 2022 due to the Russian war in Ukraine.

The Russian Federation has long been the primary destination for migrant workers from Central Asian countries. Despite the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there has not been a decrease of migrant workers from Central Asia to the Russian Federation. In the first quarter of 2023, the Russian Federation received 350,000 Tajik migrants, which was 100,000 more than the first quarter of 2022. Year-over-year, the number of Uzbek nationals migrating to the Russian Federation almost doubled, from 366,000 in the first quarter of 2022 to 630,000 in the same period in 2023. Almost 173,000 Kyrgyz citizens also migrated to the Russian Federation (Engvall, 2023).

International students

Around 313 thousand international students from Central Asia went to other countries for educational purposes in 2021. The most prominent country of origin of international students was Uzbekistan (109,945), followed by Kazakhstan (91,860), Turkmenistan (69,519), Tajikistan (27,459) and Kyrgyzstan (13,757). In 2021, the most popular destinations for international students from Central Asian countries were Türkiye, Kyrgyzstan, the Republic of Korea, Ukraine and Belarus (UIS, 2023).

Based on data available for 2021, the five Central Asian countries hosted nearly 66 thousand international students: Kyrgyzstan (61,418) hosted the highest number of international students , followed by Uzbekistan (4,219) and Turkmenistan (125). Data for Tajikistan are not provided since 2017 and for Kazakhstan since 2021. In 2021, most of the international students in Central Asian countries were from India, the Russian Federation, Turkmenistan, Pakistan and the Türkiye (UIS, 2023).

Refugees and asylum seekers

As of mid-year 2023, Central Asian countries hosted 21,814 refugees and 2,468 asylum seekers: 99.3 per cent of the refugees and 62.4 per cent of asylum seekers hosted in Central Asia were from Afghanistan. The region also hosted 41,401 stateless persons (UNHCR, 2023). The number of refugees hosted in Central Asian countries as of mid-year 2023 is less than one fifth (22%) of the peak registered as of the end of 2000 (99,086 refugees). These refugees were mainly from Afghanistan, the Russian Federation and Tajikistan. During this period, the resumption of warfare in Chechnya in late 1999, the armed incursions of 1999 and 2000 at the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border and security incidents in Uzbekistan led to tighter border controls, as well as the establishment of visa and registration requirements for CIS nationals in the whole area (IOM, 2002).

There were 18,186 refugees and 32,426 asylum seekers from Central Asian countries mainly in European and North American countries as of mid-year 2023. Uzbekistan was the country of origin of the highest number of refugees from the Central Asian sub-region (25% of the total), while Kazakhs accounted for the highest share of asylum seekers from the sub-region (30.7% of the total) (UNHCR, 2023).

Internal Displacement

In 2022, the total number of internal displacements was 166,120 in Central Asia. Only 6,130 were due to hazards and natural disasters while the majority (96.4%) happened due to conflict and violence.  However, by the end of 2022, only 4,120 internally displaced persons (IDPs) who were displaced due to conflicts and violence and 36 IDPs who were displaced due to disasters remained internally displaced (IDMC, 2023).

Recent migration patterns

The Central Asia-Russian Federation migration corridor is one of the most significant labour migration corridors in the world (IOM, 2021a), with the Russian Federation hosting an estimated 6.6 million international migrants from Central Asia in 2020 (Ministry of Interior of the Russian Federation, 2021). However, figures may have shifted due to the Russian war in Ukraine.

In 2023, Uzbekistan registered a total 233,200 individual migration outflows (UzStat, 2023; IOM 2024b). As of December 2023, around 60 per cent (1.2 million) of Uzbekistan's 2 million migrant workers were employed in the Russian Federation (AELM, 2024; IOM, 2024b).  

Of the 328,458 Kyrgyz nationals residing abroad, the majority (285,433) resided in the Russian Federation, as of 2023 (IOM, 2024c). In 2023, return migrant workers from the Russian Federation increased, with 84 per cent originating from there, up from 81 per cent in 2022. Remittances remain the primary income source for 66 per cent of migrant worker families, with 80 per cent regularly sending money back home (Ibid).

In Kazakhstan, in the fourth quarter of 2023, 3.5 million migrants left the country, with the majority heading to Uzbekistan (1.5 million), Kyrgyzstan (746,000), and the Russian Federation (678,302) (National Border Service of Kazakhstan, 2024; IOM, 2024d).

According to a mobility assessment by IOM’s Displacement Tracking Matrix, key informants indicated that 247,753 Tajik nationals from the assessed communities have migrated to 28 different countries.  The pre-eminent destination for these emigrants was overwhelmingly the Russian Federation, drawing 98 per cent of the migrant population (IOM, 2024e).

Displacement

The number of refugees hosted by all Central Asian countries increased from 3,000 individuals in 1992 reaching almost 100 thousand refugees in 2000 – mainly located in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, starting to register a decrease only in 2006 (with 7,870 refugees in total). However, after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, the number of refugees hosted by Central Asian countries – in particular Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – has started to increase and as of mid-2023, the total number of refugees hosted in Central Asia region equal to 21,814, registering an increase more than 240 per cent compared to 2000 (with 3,685 refugees) (UNHCR, 2023).

From 2008, the number of IDPs in Central Asia reached a historical peak in 2010 with more than 307 thousand new internal displacements during the year, mainly due to conflicts and violence in Kyrgyzstan between ethnic Uzbek and Kyrgyz communities and then in 2019 with more than 166 thousand internal displacements due to intercommunal violence in southern Kyrgyzstan. However, 2020 was the peak of internal displacements due to disasters, with more than 82 thousand internal displacements in Central Asia, mainly related to heavy rains and floodings in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in early May (IDMC, 2023).

Mixed Migration Movements

The migratory movements from and to Central Asian countries have been highly influenced by the relevance of migration corridors. There are cultural, historical and language ties which are defining the migration corridors. To these, it should be added the legal framework – made by bilateral and regional movement and labour agreements – as fast track procedures in Russian Federation for Central Asian migrants, as well as free labour mobility among Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) Member States (IOM, 2023).

In this context, there are also observed cases of informal work without official work or residence permits and people travelling for work under other visa schemes (Ryazantsev et al., 2021; IOM, 2014). In the case of Türkiye, the number of Central Asian nationals who arrived in the country for tourism purposes increased by 60.6 per cent in 2023 compared to 2022 (Presidency of Migration Management of the Republic of Türkiye, 2024). It is understood that some migrants overstay their visas or visa-free period to work irregularly or continue their journeys to Central America to reach the United States of America (USA). There is also an observed upward trend (366% increase in the number of Central Asian migrants that were expelled or apprehended in 2022 compared to 2021) in attempts to cross to the USA via Latin America and the Caribbean (US Office of Homeland Security Statistics, 2024). The number of pending cases in the USA immigration courts for Central Asian nationals (28,162 in 2023 vs 7,629 in 2022) also shows a significant increase in 2023 versus 2022 (269%) (Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse, 2024).

Covid-19

The Coronavirus 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic has had a huge impact on economies, lifestyles and health across the world and, in particular, on Central Asian countries struggling to transition after the dissolution of the Soviet Union (Lee-Jones, 2021). The Covid-19 pandemic laid bare the vulnerabilities of the region’s over-dependence on migration. The flow of money from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)[2] countries to the Russian Federation increased by 47 per cent in the first half of 2020 to support migrant workers and students stranded there. Given the movement restrictions, the  remittances from the Russian Federation to Central Asia fell by 23 per cent in the second quarter of 2020 compared to the same period in 2019 (Ratha et. al., 2020).

Data sources

Regional sources

Central Asian countries actively attempt to measure and monitor mobility and recognize the need to produce reliable information on migration movements. In the last years, significant progress has been made in establishing migration-related statistical and information platforms to inform policy making. Central Asian countries have started to autonomously collect data on international migrants’ inflows and outflows, socio-economic profiles of international migrants, and ethnic repatriation of foreign citizens where applicable.

Additionally, there are some supranational data available such as:

• the Interstate Statistical Committee of the CIS, which gives for all member states – included all Central Asian countries - the number of internal and international migrants as the migration gain per country
• the EAEU Statistics section which gives for all member countries – included Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan – the number of workers but data seem to not be update since 2017.

Sources by country

Kazakhstan

• Border Service of the National Security Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan: Visa regime of the Republic of Kazakhstan for foreign citizens; Visa migration of the Republic of Kazakhstan portal

• Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan: Socio-economic development of the Republic of Kazakhstan - Statistical bulletin

• Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan (MFA): Order of entry and stay of foreigners in the Republic of Kazakhstan
• Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of Population of the Republic of Kazakhstan (MLSPP): Migration of the population, drafts and regulation and Open data section
• Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Republic of Kazakhstan: Ethnic- Kazakhstan Bologna process and academic mobility centre; Reports for number of international students in/out
• Ministry of the Internal Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan (MIA RK): Open data section, Migration balance across all flows; Migration balance with other countries.

Kyrgyzstan

• Ministry of Digital Development of the Kyrgyz Republic
• Ministry of Education and Science of the Kyrgyz Republic
• Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Kyrgyz Republic
• Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Kyrgyz Republic
• Ministry of Labor, Social Security and Migration of the Kyrgyz Republic:  Service for migrants - Russian black list
• National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic:  Brief statistical handbook - migration outflow
• State Border Service of the Kyrgyz Republic: webpage dedicated to the Victims of trafficking (VOTs) and irregular migration in the country

Tajikistan

• Agency of Statistics under President of the Republic of Tajikistan: Sociodemographic sector tab includes data on migration of population
• Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Tajikistan
• Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Tajikistan
• Ministry of Labor, Migration and Employment of the Republic of Tajikistan: General statistics, including migration; Migration Service
• Ministry of the Internal Affairs of the Republic of Tajikistan
• State Committee for National Security of the Republic of Tajikistan (SCNS)

Turkmenistan

• Ministry for National Security of Turkmenistan (MNS)
• Ministry of Education of Turkmenistan
• Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkmenistan
• Ministry of the Internal Affairs of Turkmenistan
• State Committee for Statistics of Turkmenistan: Census of the population; Publication with data on SDGs

Uzbekistan

• Ministry of Employment and Poverty Reduction of the Republic of Uzbekistan: Open data section; Open data website on legislation of Uzbekistan
• Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan
• Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan: Open data section
• Ministry of preschool and school education of the Republic of Uzbekistan
• Open data portal of the Republic of Uzbekistan
• Statistical agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (UzStat)

Strengths and limitations of the data sources

International organizations such as the International Labour Organization (ILO), the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), the United National High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and World Bank use different methodologies and data sources, including census and survey data, registration and estimation methods, to overcome differences in the availability and quality of country-level data to produce comparable estimates and statistics. As such, the reliability of data produced is heavily dependent on these underlying sources and methods.

Different terminologies are utilized within and between countries to refer to the same statistical variable or migration-related phenomenon, which can lead to confusion and inhibit the ability to compare data. The basic disaggregation of data – by sex, age, legal status and occupational profiles – are often not available. Additionally, there is limited availability of methodological summaries and information products that explain the data being collected or estimated.

As is the case with several other regions, it is important to complement the official national statistics of the Central Asian countries with the official statistics from National Statistical Offices (NSOs) of major destination countries in order to get a more holistic understanding of emigration from the Central Asian countries. Some examples of NSOs of these destination countries are:

• Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat): International migration and migrant workers by citizenship.
• Presidency of Migration Management of the Republic of Türkiye: Migration Statistics
• Korean Statistical Information Service (KoSIS): International Migration Statistics

Regional processes

Commonwealth of Independent States

The CIS is a regional intergovernmental organization in Eurasia created in 1991 after the Soviet Union dissolution and to which all the Central Asian countries participate. Established in 1996, the CIS Conference - known as the Regional Conference to Address the Problems of Refugees, Displaced Persons, other Forms of Involuntary Displacement and Returnees in the Countries of the CIS and Relevant Neighbouring Countries – helped to address the challenges faced by migrants within the region. In particular, through the CIS Conference, member states reinforced the urgency to addressing the short- and long-term assistance and protection needs of various migrant groups present in the CIS area through to adoption of tailored national policies, in particular asylum seekers, refugees and IDPs. The CIS Conference is longer active since 2005, although the CIS organization is still in power and represents an important regional initiative in terms of economic, political and military cooperation within the border of countries involved.

Eurasian Economic Union

Along Belarus and the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan is one of the founding members of the Customs Union, which came into being on 1 January 2010, and which was transformed into the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU or EEU) on 1 January 2015, later joined by Armenia (2013) and Kyrgyzstan (2014). Within the Union, the EAEU boosts and supports labour migration internally, providing benefits in the form of full social security, medical care for workers of EAEU countries, credit for work (insurance) experience, export of pensions, direct recognition of education documents without any procedures, and legal guarantees for the education of children of migrant workers on an equal basis with local residents (Andronova and Ryazantsev, 2022). Migrant workers are not required to fill out a migration card and register in the state of employment if they stay in the country for up to 30 days. The case studies on the regulation of labour migration from the EAEU countries in each EAEU country are also systematized (EAEU, 2022). Citizens of EAEU States do not need labour permits to work legally in the Russian Federation (Schenk, 2023).

Almaty Process

On 16 March 2011, a Regional Conference on Refugee Protection and International Migration was held in Almaty (Kazakhstan) among three Central Asian countries - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan - and Afghanistan, Azerbaijan and the Republic of Türkiye. In addition to these countries, Iran, Italy, Pakistan and Turkmenistan participated as observing members. From 2013 onwards, regular consultative processes have been started with the priority of regulating the irregular migration in the area and the re-integration of returning migrant workers.

This overview page was authored by the Data and Research Unit in IOM's Regional Office in Vienna for South-Eastern Europe, Eastern Europe and Central Asia (SEEECA).