Migration data in Oceania

A history of movement

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples are the region’s earliest migrants, having first arrived on the continent 65,000 years ago (Clarkson et al., 2017), with Papua New Guineans arriving approximately 50,000 years ago (O’Connell, 2015). The islands of the Pacific Ocean were settled later in waves moving from west to east around 3,000 years ago (Lee, 2009). Aotearoa/New Zealand was the last major land mass to be settled between 1250 and 1300 (New Zealand Ministry for Culture and Heritage, n.d.). Inter-island migration and trade was a feature of the pre-colonial Pacific communities (Choo, 1994). 

Colonization of the region involved power struggles between the United Kingdom, France, Spain, the Netherlands, Germany, the United States and Japan. The only country to resist colonial appropriation was Tonga, which remained self-governing throughout (Lee, 2009). Strong postcolonial ties remain with the United Kingdom, the United States of America, and France. Colonization instigated new waves of migration to the region, kicked off by missionaries and traders (Matsuda, 2012). Around 160,000 convicts were transported to Australia in the early colonial period, while more than 62,000 South Sea Islanders were brought in as indentured labourers in a process known as “blackbirding” (National Museum of Australia, 2020). In this period, British colonialists also brought substantial numbers of indentured labourers from India to Fiji (Lal, 2012). The region’s history of human movement is reflected in current movement within the region and with former colonial powers.

Current immigration trends 

Australia, the largest country in terms of population, land mass, and economic activity, is the region’s lead host of migrants. The country has maintained a large immigration programme over many decades, recruiting migrants to tackle population concerns and address labour shortages since the end of World War II (Richards, 2008). As a result, at mid-year 2020, 30 per cent of residents of Australia, 7.7 million people, were born in another country (UN DESA, 2020). While they represent every country in the world, the main countries of origin were: the United Kingdom (1,29 million), China (653, 232), New Zealand (611, 266), India (579, 264), and the Philippines (286,303) (ibid.). 

New Zealand is the second major destination for migrants to the region. Almost 29 per cent of its population – approximately 1.4 million of its 4.8 million residents – were born in another country (ibid.). At mid-year 2020, it hosted sizeable numbers of migrants from the United Kingdom (286,746), China (144,207), India (122,506), Australia (85,289), and South Africa (73,846) (ibid.). 

The remaining 75,479 migrants in countries in the region were dispersed across the Pacific Island countries. Almost half of these live in Papua New Guinea (including 11,429 Indonesians, 9,219 Australians and 1,783 New Zealanders), and another 14, 087 migrants live in Fiji (ibid.). 

Migration and the economy: ‘Brain Drain’ versus Remittance Gain

For many Pacific Island countries, the emigration of workers can cause shortages in key professions, but results in the benefit of remittances from migrants and new skills amongst returnees. For instance, the “brain drain” of health professionals emigrating from Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Samoa and Tonga has contributed to a shortage of health workers in those countries (Yamamoto et al., 2012). Meanwhile, remittances account for a significant share of the GDP in the region. In 2023 two of the top 10 remittance-receiving countries in the world (by share of GDP) were in the Pacific region , including 41 per cent of Tonga’s GDP – the highest of any country in the world, and Samoa (28%)(World Bank, 2024). Other countries in the region where remittances constitute a high percentage of their GDP are Vanuatu (12%), Marshall Islands (12%) and Timor-Leste (10%) (ibid.). States in Oceania with increases in remittances in terms of money received in 2023 were Fiji (+9% to reach USD 500 million), Samoa (+4.2% to USD 85 billion) and Timor-Leste (+31% to USD 244 million)(ibid.). Growth in remittances declined in 2023 in Kiribati, Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. In Palau, Papua New Guinea, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia, and saw no change in Palau, Papua New Guinea, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia. Declines in remittances were attributed to an improvement in domestic tourism industry requiring workers to remain at home, or other reasons for residents to not emigrate (ibid.).

Migration and the economy: International students and tourism 

Migration is integral to the economy of Oceania. The ageing populations of some countries rely on migrants to maintain the relative proportion of working-age adults, to counter the departure of citizens, and to compensate for low birth rates that fall below population replacement levels (Australian Government Productivity Commission, 2006; Carrington et al., 2008). International education is a significant industry for both Australia and New Zealand.  In Australia the industry was worth AUD 36.4 billion in the financial year 2022-2023, accepting 590,000 international students in 2023 (Australian government, 2024). In New Zealand the industry was worth NZD 3.7 billion in 2019 with 72,000 student visas approved in financial year 2022-2023 (New Zealand Immigration, 2024). The region is also reliant on a strong tourism industry, with some countries experiencing bursts of tourist arrivals that far outnumber resident populations. Palau’s 18,000 residents hosted over 35,000 visitors in 2023, almost twice its population, while in 2019 this figure was five times its population (UN DESA, 2024; Palau Government, 2023). Similarly, Fiji’s 922,000 residents hosted  636,000 tourists (UN DESA, 2024; Fiji Bureau of Statistics, 2023), with tourism contributing 34 per cent of the country’s GDP in 2019 (World Travel and Tourism Council, 2019). 

Migration and the economy: Seasonal labour schemes 

Australia and New Zealand offer seasonal labour schemes that enable short- to medium-term migration to fill labour shortages in industries with seasonal demand (Brickenstein, 2015). Australia offers the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme, which merged the previous Seasonal Worker Programme and Pacific Labour Scheme and took effect in April 2022, to allow employers in sectors short on local workers (including agriculture and aged care) to recruit workers from nine Pacific islands and Timor-Leste. Workers can be hired for seasonal positions up to nine months in 12 months, or for longer-term roles (1-4 years). The AUD 94.3 billion agriculture industry relies heavily on the labour thus supplied, along with working holiday makers (Australian Government 2024a).  

In New Zealand, the Recognised Seasonal Employer scheme allows the horticulture and viticulture industries to recruit workers from nine Pacific Island nations for seasonal work. Workers can stay in New Zealand for up to seven months (nine for workers from Tuvalu and Kiribati) in eleven months. Implemented in 2007, as demand from employers has increased, the cap on places has increased from 8,000 in 2009 to 19,000 in 2022/23 (New Zealand Immigration, n.d.).   

Forced migration: Refugees

As of 2022, the top three countries in the region hosting refugees and asylum seekers were Australia (117,100), Papua New Guinea (13,800) and New Zealand (3,700) (UNHCR, 2024). In 2023, most refugees and asylum seekers in Australia originated from Malaysia (16,800), China (13,900), the Islamic Republic of Iran (9,800), Ukraine (8,300), India (8,300) and Afghanistan (7,000)(UNHCR, 2024). Australia and New Zealand have allocated 20,000 places and 1,500 annual places respectively to resettlement (Australian Government, 2024; UNHCR, 2023). Within New Zealand’s quota, on 24 March 2022, the governments of Australia and New Zealand announced that New Zealand will resettle refugees subject to Australia’s offshore transfer policy and will annually for three years resettle 150 refugees located on Nauru or in Australia (UNHCR, 2022). In 2023, 14,377 refugees were resettled to Australia through resettlement schemes, most of them originating from Afghanistan (5,760), Syrian Arab Republic (4,738) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (980) (UNHCR, 2024). To New Zealand, of 2386 resettled refugees, the most common countries of origin were Syrian Arab Republic (693), Myanmar (496) and Democratic Republic of the Congo (308) (ibid.). 

Forced migration: Displacement due to Disasters and Conflict 

Nine of the 14 states have disaster displacement data available. The highest numbers of displacements due to disaster in 2023 were in Vanuatu (69,000), New Zealand (14,000), Papua New Guinea (13,000), Fiji (6,700), and Australia (4,700) (IDMC, 2024). An estimated 64,000 or the 69,000 displacements in Vanuatu were attributed to two cyclones (Judy and Kevin) which hit within 48 hours of each other. The highest numbers of internally displaced persons were in Papua New Guinea (7,500), Vanuatu (2,400), New Zealand (2,300), Australia (1,300) and Solomon Islands (640) (ibid.). The disaster events most affecting this region are storms (87,000 displacements out of 108,000), volcanic activity (12,000 displacements), floods (5,700) and earthquakes (1,900) (ibid.).  

Conflict and violence triggered 2,000 internal displacements in Oceania, all of which occurred in Papua New Guinea. Internally displaced people due to conflict increased sharply in the region from 25,000 IDPs in 2021, to 86,000 in 2022 and 88,000 in 2023. In 2023 87,000 IDPs in the region due to conflict were in Papua New Guinea, and 1,000 were in the Solomon Islands (ibid.). 

Forced migration: Anticipating climate- and environmentally-induced migration

Many of the countries of Oceania are acutely vulnerable to the impacts of environmental and climate change. While planned relocation is the least preferred option (Gharbaoui and Blocher, 2018), governments agree that migration linked to adverse climate impacts will become more common as disasters become more severe and impacted territories become uninhabitable (McMichael et al., 2019). Kiribati is expected to be unfit for human habitation by 2035, with existing internal displacement from low-lying islands and coastal regions causing overcrowding and limited access to basic resources (Cauchi et al., 2019). Planned relocation of communities has already occurred in Fiji, Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu (IOM and UN-OHRLLS, 2019), and several Pacific countries have developed national frameworks to plan for this phenomena, including Fiji (2023) and Vanuatu (2018). As a potential destination country, New Zealand’s Cabinet (2018) proposed an action plan for responding to climate-induced displacement and migration in the Pacific. A regional climate mobility framework was completed in 2023, with the support of the Pacific Climate Change Migration and Human Security Programme (Pacific Islands Forum, 2023). A landmark decision from the UN Human Rights Committee (2020) recognizes that States shall refrain from sending people back to situations in which the impacts of climate change in the country of origin pose a risk to their life with dignity (principle of non-refoulement). The Committee’s conclusions underscore the urgency for States to open new regular migration pathways and provide temporary and longer-term forms of protection to people who would face life-threatening climate risks in case of return to their country of origin. The decision also highlights that the affected States need the support of the international community to address the immense challenges posed by climate change (IOM, 2020b).

Forced migration: Australia's offshore processing arrangements

Australia has a national asylum system in place to determine whether people claiming asylum are refugees and are owed protection (UNHCR, n.d.), and implements policies which prevent people who arrive by boat from seeking asylum. According to the Australian Department of Home Affairs (n.d.), anyone who attempts an unauthorized boat voyage to Australia is turned back to their point of departure, returned to their home country or transferred to another country for processing. This includes transfer to a processing centre in Nauru and, until 31 December 2021, Papua New Guinea (Australian Border Force, 2019a; Refugee Council of Australia, 2024). Between 2012 and April 2024, 4,300 people were transferred under these arrangements to Papua New Guinea or Nauru. 1,400 have been resettled in a third country, 1,000 have been resettled in the USA, and another 1,000 were returned to their country of origin. 840 were returned to Australia before this option was stopped in 2013, and 160 have been resettled in New Zealand. 64 migrants are estimated to still be in both Nauru and Papua New Guinea respectively (Refugee Council Australia, 2024).    

Key UN bodies, including the UNHCR and OHCHR, have criticized these arrangements for failing to comply with human rights standards.

COVID-19 

As a result of COVID-19, all countries in Oceania introduced stringent border restrictions, including closed airports, seaports and land border crossings and strict quarantine measures. Mobility restrictions due to COVID-19 also disrupted labour migration as well as critical sources of employment and income the Pacific region (World Bank, 2021). Thousands of migrants in Australia had lost their jobs due to the downturn, or their right to work due to the expiry of their original visa (Australian Red Cross, 2020). 

Australia and New Zealand were both hit hard by the lack of international students during the pandemic, but are slowly starting to reopen their borders for international students again and seasonal labourers (Government of New Zealand, 2020, 2022; Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2021; Australian Department of Home Affairs, 2021; Australian Department of Education, Skills and Employment, 2022).